Maple Leafs Need To Be Better For Their Backups

Spare a minute for Kasimir Kaskisuo this morning.

The 26-year-old had waited his whole life to make his NHL debut, before being unceremoniously thrown in at the deep end against Pittsburgh on Saturday.

The Finn is the latest puck stopper to be marched into the inner sanctuary of the Temple of the Sun and told to select a cup by the Maple Leafs – “choose wisely” is the advice from the Guardian Knight, here played by the spirit of Curtis McElhinney, for the wrong chalice will proven poisonous (to a your career).

It might help if the team in front hadn’t laid out so many traps in the first place…

Ok, enough of the bad Indiana Jones references. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a problem. They have many problems right now if we’re frank, but this one has been present for at least 18-months.

The problem is that they can’t play Frederik Andersen for 82 games.

Lord knows Head Coach Mike Babcock is trying to get him as close to that number as possible since he joined the franchise in 2016, but at some point the Dane needs a night off.

Enter a string of number twos – some who more closely resemble the body function than the hockey position, if you listen to some Maple Leafs fans, save for one shining beacon of hope; that being *check notes* Curtis McElhinney.

The now 36-year-old came to the Maple Leafs via waivers in January 2017, going on to make 32 appearances across two seasons with the franchise before riding the waiver wire out of town in the fall of 2018.

Garrett Sparks was then handed the reigns, it didn’t work out.

Enter Michael Hutchinson – acquired via trade from Florida (where it hadn’t worked out) – and, again, it didn’t work out.

Hutchinson was waived last week, and then demoted to the AHL; Kaskisuo came into replace him.

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Fans still long for the return of the Mac, he who can answer their prayers, but it might not matter if the Maple Leafs don’t start providing a little move cover for their backup goaltenders.

Since Andersen joined the team in 2016 to today, the Maple Leafs have averaged 7.83 High Danger Shots Against per 60 at 5v5 as a team – with Andersen facing 7.85 HDSA/60, and the backups* 7.78.

*Leafs backups since the start of 2016/17 season to present: McElhinney, Hutchinson, Sparks, Kaskisuo, Jhonas Enroth, Antoine Bibeau, and Calvin Pickard.

It’s probably no great surprise to see that Andersen has faced a ‘tougher workload’ on the whole – he has featured in 208 games to the backups combined 73 since opening night 2016 – but things have gone kinda off base this year.

The Maple Leafs have improved in front of Andersen, with the 30-year-old facing 6.88 HDSA/60 so far this season – effectively one HD shot less per game.

If Andersen plays in 60 games again this season, that’s translates to around 11 fewer 5v5 goals this year, based on Andersen’s .823 HD save percentage since joining the Maple Leafs.

The backups have faired less well however, facing 11.79 HDSA/60 to date – a full 4.42 extra high danger shots per 60 than they faced between 2016 and the end of last season (7.37).

To put that into some kind of perspective, the oft maligned Sparks faced 8.15 HDSA/60 in his 20 appearances for the Maple Leafs during the 2018/19 season, conceding 20 HD Goals Against; and those 20 goals against are the key point here.

Sparks high danger save percentage through those 20 games was a solid .844 – better than everyone (including Andersen) except Bibeau (.875 in 2 games…) and McElhinney (.879) – and he still gave up 20 goals.

It’s all very well shaving 11 high danger goals against from Andersen’s stats; but if you then given up another 20+ by failing to provide the same coverage for your backup goaltenders…well you can see where I am going with this. It’s not great. Especially when the broad theory is you need to play that little bit better in front of your backup because he’s that little bit less good than your starter.

As it’s still only November, we are in ‘small sample size’ territory here. Hutchinson and Kaskisuo have only made seven appearances combined, less than half that of Andersen (16).

But that huge leap in high danger shots faced by the Maple Leafs backups is hardly a recipe for success if the team hopes to find someone capable of performing in the 20-25 games required of them as the club’s backup goaltender.

Perhaps help teach them to swim, before throwing them in at the deep end and wondering why they sink.

All statistics via Natural Stat Trick